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Friday, September 21, 2012 - 11:45

Next Wk/US: Case-Shiller, Cons Conf, Durables, Rev GDP, P-I

WASHINGTON (MNI) - Housing data released in the week ahead may continue the trend set by the unexpectedly strong existing home sales figure already released for the month of August.

The July S&P Case Shiller home price index will be released Tuesday at 9:00 a.m. ET and the July Federal Housing Finance Agency's home price index will be released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET. August new-home sales will also be released Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET and the September pending home sales index will be released Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The recent strength in home sales has been foreshadowed to a large degree by stronger home builder confidence and housing construction starts over the past few months. It may be that with August data, sales will finally begin to gain real traction in spite of continued weakness in the jobs market.

Home prices will likely lag behind the climb in sales, though National Association of Realtors' chief economist Lawrence Yun noted in the existing home sales release that a dwindling inventory of foreclosed homes is putting upward pressure on prices generally.

Consumer confidence data will also be released next week, with the Conference Board's September consumer confidence index due Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET and the University of Michigan's final September consumer sentiment index on Friday at 9:55 a.m. ET.

Consumer confidence received a surprise boost in the initial University of Michigan survey and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index in September. This may have been due to a temporary surge following the Democratic National Convention, according to economists interviewed by MNI -- next week's data could make or break the trend.

Initial jobless claims, to be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m., may also be signaling renewed weakness in payroll figures, as the past two weeks have posted above 380,000. The timing of the Labor day holiday may have skewed seasonal adjustments made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so next week's data should provide a reality check.

The advanced durable goods report for August will be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Manufacturing data has lately trended toward a weakening in the sector. The Institute of Supply Managers' purchasing managers index has shown a contraction nationally for the last three months, with some of the key leading indicators, such as new orders, leading the shift downward.

The MNI Chicago Report purchasing managers' index, which historically has maintained a strong correlation with the national ISM index, will be released Friday at 9:45 a.m. ET.

The third estimate of second quarter GDP will also be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET and is expected to show an unchanged reading of 1.7% growth.

Other data to be released over the week include September personal consumption and income on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing activity index on Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET, the Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index on Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, the Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing activity index on Thursday at 11:00 a.m. ET, and the National Association of Purchasing Managers' Milwaukee index on Friday at 9:00 a.m. ET.

Federal Reserve speakers for the week are listed below:

San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams will speak at the City Club of San Francisco Monday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser will speak on the economic outlook in Philadelphia on Tuesday at 12:00 p.m. ET.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans will speak to the Chamber of Commerce in Indiana on Wednesday at 1:15 p.m. ET.

--Kasra Kangarloo is a Washington reporter for Need to Know News

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **


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