Thursday, October 10, 2019 - 14:07

MNI PREVIEW: Canada Sept. Job Growth Seen at +5K vs. Aug. +81K

Unemployment near record low shows economy near capacity, allowing BOC to hold line on rates

OTTAWA (MNI) - Canada's labor market probably slowed in September, with employers adding just enough workers to keep the jobless rate close to a record low.

Job gains probably eased to 5,000 last month, according to the MNI economist median, following a gain of 81,100 in August that was far ahead of forecasts.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.7% for a third month in September according to the MNI economist median. The rate hit a record low of 5.4% in May.

Part of reason economists see weakness in September was because the August gain was due to a jump in summer part-time education jobs.

The labor market is showing the Canadian economy's resilience so far against global trade shocks, a big reason the Bank of Canada has left interest rates unchanged this year as its global peers offer fresh stimulus. Still, the BOC is predicting growth will slow in the third quarter.

Another item to watch is strength in Canadian hourly wages, up 3.7% in August from a year ago. Those kinds of increases, if sustained, could help keep inflation around the BOC's 2% target.

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613 981-1671; email:


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